Weekly Steel Market Insights: Key Drivers and Global Trade Developments
Weekly Steel Market insights lead the news this week, showing differences between China’s strong market and weaker global metal prices.
China’s steel and new energy metals rose thanks to expected production cuts and help from government policies.
Overseas markets, like the LME, saw prices fall, reflecting weaker global demand and cautious trading activity.
Turkey’s steel market remains under pressure because local demand is low, even though prices have stopped falling for now.
Across the Weekly Steel Market, many people are watching President Trump’s new tariff plans and July deadlines that could change global steel trade.
To give you a clearer picture of short-term pricing momentum, we’ve compiled a week-on-week snapshot of key steel and metal products. The table below outlines cumulative price changes from May 26 to May 30, 2025, based on daily data from Mysteel, SteelOrbis, Platts, Fastmarkets, and the LME. It’s followed by a bar chart to help you quickly visualise which segments led the movement in this week’s Weekly Steel Market.
Week-on-week price movement
(Mon 30 Jun → Fri 04 Jul 2025 • cumulative % change)
| Product | Direction | W/W Change % | Market Insight |
|---|---|---|---|
| Iron Ore 62 % CFR China | ▼ | -4.46 % | Big swings (-7.5 %, -7.5 %, +8.8 %, +1.8 %) left ore lower overall as early-week sell-off outweighed mid-week rebound. mysteel.net |
| Scrap HMS 2 CFR Turkey | ▲ | +1.89 % | Steady mill bookings lifted import scrap a shade over the week. steelorbis.com |
| Billet FOB China | → | 0.00 % | Export offers held flat on balanced home-and-away demand. steelorbis.com |
| Billet CFR Turkey | → | 0.00 % | MENA buyers kept billet at a stand-still all week. steelorbis.com |
| Wire Rod FOB China | → | 0.00 % | Tight billet feedstock limited volumes but prices were unchanged. mysteel.net |
| Wire Rod Ex-work Turkey | → | 0.00 % | Local Turkish wire-rod trade was thin, leaving prices flat. steelorbis.com |
| Rebar FOB Turkey | ▼ | -0.74 % | Month-end lull clipped rebar export offers a fraction. steelorbis.com |
| HR Coil (HRC) | ▼ | -0.22 % | U.S. Midwest HRC drifted lower on softer restocking sentiment. mysteel.net |
| CR Coil (CRC) | → | 0.00 % | CRC mirrored HRC yet closed the week unchanged. mysteel.net |
| HDGI Coil Z120 g/m² | → | 0.00 % | Export-grade coated coil stayed flat amid quiet inquiries. mysteel.net |
| Stainless 304 Coil | → | 0.00 % | Nickel’s calm tone kept 304 coil in a narrow band. mysteel.net |
| Aluminium (LME 3-mo) | ▲ | +1.29 % | Three daily upticks (+0.45 %, +0.42 %, +0.42 %) out-paced one small dip, as shrinking LME stocks underpinned prices. westmetall.com |
Quick read: Iron ore’s mid-week rally could not erase Monday–Tuesday’s slide, aluminium kept grinding higher on tight exchange inventories, and most flat-rolled steels marked time in a very subdued holiday-shortened week.
Global Metal & Weekly Steel Market Highlights
China’s Metals Market Shines
- China’s domestic metals outperformed overseas LME markets, driven by policy support and expected steel production cuts.
- Ferrous metals rose strongly, with iron ore gaining 1.33%, rebar up 0.89%, and coking coal jumping over 3%.
- New energy metals surged, as lithium carbonate rose 1.32% and polysilicon climbed 4.08%, fueled by green energy optimism.
- SHFE base metals mostly gained, while LME metals slipped, showing a clear East-West market divergence.
Weekly Steel Market Developments in China
- Steel market sentiment lifted by government calls to reduce excess capacity and restrict billet exports.
- Tangshan mills reportedly ordered to cut steel production by 30% from July 4-15, boosting price expectations.
- Despite cuts, China’s construction steel demand weakened due to heatwaves and rainstorms slowing building activity.
- SHFE rebar futures rose 1.45% to 3,076, yet inventory depletion remained sluggish at just 0.39% week-on-week.
- Lower Chinese exports could ease pressure on India’s steel market, helping stabilize regional prices.
Turkish Steel Market Under Pressure
- Turkish flat steel prices stabilized this week after earlier sharp drops, but demand stayed weak, forcing seller discounts.
- Domestic consumption remains low, signaling continued challenges for Turkey’s steel re-rollers and exporters.
Macroeconomic & Commodity Landscape
- China’s Warehousing Index held above 50% for the eighth month, indicating steady logistics and consumer goods flow.
- US private sector employment fell for the first time in over two years, heightening speculation about Fed rate cuts.
- Markets expect US interest rates to drop by roughly 66 basis points between September and December 2025.
- Crude oil prices fell after US inventories rose unexpectedly by 3.8 million barrels, raising concerns over summer demand.
Trump Tariff Update – Steel Market Impact
Doubling Tariffs & New Policy Moves
- President Trump announced a jump from 25% to 50% tariffs on imported steel and aluminium, effective June 4, 2025.
- Trump justified the hike as a measure to further secure US steel jobs and domestic production.
- Tariff hikes are expected to raise prices for US steel products and strain manufacturers who rely on imported inputs.
July 9th Tariff Deadline Looms
- Trump set a July 9th deadline for additional tariff hikes, with new rates ranging from 10% up to 70% on various partners.
- Notifications to countries will roll out in phases, aiming to finalize all new rates by early August.
Status of US Trade Negotiations
- China relations are calming slightly after easing chip software and ethane export restrictions, despite earlier friction.
- Vietnam secured a deal limiting most tariffs to 20%, but transshipping goods face a steep 40% duty.
- Talks with Japan soured, as Trump pushes for tariffs of 30% or higher, citing tough negotiations.
- The EU signaled willingness to accept a 10% tariff but seeks exemptions for key industries like pharmaceuticals and semiconductors.
- Canada scrapped its digital services tax and resumed trade talks with the US, hoping for a mid-July deal.
Navigating Weekly Steel Market Changes and Trade Risks
In conclusion, this Weekly Steel Market update reflects a mixed landscape shaped by China’s gains, softer global metals, and looming trade risks.
Iron ore struggled despite mid-week rallies, while aluminium rose steadily on tight stocks, and most flat steels stayed flat in quiet trading.
Trump’s tariff moves and upcoming deadlines add new layers of uncertainty that could reshape global trade flows and price dynamics.
Stakeholders should watch legal outcomes, Chinese production cuts, and shifting demand signals to navigate the market confidently in the coming weeks.
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very detailed report
Thank you Umar. Every Friday we have a blog post about current business / market situation in the steel industry.