Market Overview (Week-on-Week Changes)
| Product (Basis) | Trend | Weekly Δ | Commentary | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iron Ore CFR China | ▼ | -2% | Dipped for 2nd week on oversupply and weak mill demand. | Reuters, SteelOrbis |
| Scrap HMS 2 CFR Turkey | ▼ | -1% | Turkish mills reduced intake; offers retreated to mid-$340s. | SteelOrbis |
| Billet FOB China | → | 0% | Stable around $420–430/t; no fresh signals. | SteelOrbis |
| Wire Rod ex-China | ▲ | +1% | Slight uptrend as ASEAN demand returned. | SteelOrbis |
| Rebar FOB Turkey | ▼ | -5% | Down $30/t as scrap softened and Gulf demand faded. | SteelOrbis |
| HRC FOB China | ▼ | -1% | Soft futures and weak SEA demand pressured offers. | SteelOrbis |
| CRC FOB China | ▼ | -0.4% | Mild dip on quiet trading; sellers dropped $1–2/t. | SteelOrbis |
| HDGI Coil FOB China | ▼ | -1% | Lost $5/t amid bearish flat product sentiment. | SteelOrbis |
| S/S Coil 304 (China) | → | 0% | Flat for third week; nickel steady. | SteelOrbis |
| Aluminium 3-mo LME | ▼ | -1% | Retreat on macro headwinds after short squeeze faded. | Reuters |
🌐 Global Policy & Market Highlights
- China confirms “no-growth” steel output cap for 2025 to reinforce emissions policy. Traders see limited upside for iron ore.
- US maintains 25% steel tariffs under Section 232; exemption process tightens.
- EU CBAM debate intensifies—France, Germany divided on SME coverage; final scope decision in June.
- Philippines initiates anti-dumping probe on Chinese/Vietnamese wire rod—ASEAN demand could shift.
- Vale Q2 shipments at risk post-cyclone; firm’s Q1 results hint at deeper iron ore slump.
📌 Trump Tariff Tracker (New)
Apr 24 • Trump reaffirms Section 232 tariffs under emergency powers
White House cites “supply-chain resilience” and expands coverage to certain alloy products. Domestic producers welcome move; carmakers warn of inflation.
Source: Reuters, Bloomberg
📝 Editorial Note
Longs weakened sharply, while flats saw softer but persistent pressure. China’s output cap and ASEAN rod demand limited downside in billets and rod, while Turkey saw deeper cuts in longs due to scrap drops and quiet export activity.
| Segment | What’s driving it | Near-term bias |
|---|---|---|
| Raw materials (iron-ore & scrap) | Vale and Rio Tinto both warned that cyclone damage trimmed Q1 shipments, putting a modest floor under seaborne fines even as Chinese mills remain on hand-to-mouth inventories.NasdaqFastmarkets Scrap, by contrast, is weighed down by weak finished-steel offtake and plentiful collection in Europe/Turkey. | Iron-ore: sideways–soft unless Chinese restocking resumes. Scrap: mild downside risk. |
| Longs (rebar, billet, wire rod) | Turkish rebar exporters are cutting offers faster than scrap falls to capture scarce Gulf/ASEAN orders, while a new Philippine AD petition may further divert ASEAN rod demand toward Turkey.GovInfo | Bearish to neutral – look for further $10–20/t discounting if scrap weakens again. |
| Flats (HRC/CRC/HDGI) | China’s renewed “no-growth” crude-steel cap for 2025 is tempering supply growth, helping steady export offers even as futures ease.Reuters | Sideways – mills are likely to defend margins; downside limited unless export bookings stall. |
| Policy watch | • USTR’s tighter Section 232 waiver rules keep U.S. flat products shielded, buoying Mexican/Brazilian buyers’ interest in Asian HRC.Global Trade Law Blog • EU ministers remain split on CBAM scope; any July compromise that softens SME coverage could revive import appetite in Q3.GOV.UK | Event-driven volatility – be ready for sentiment swings around policy headlines. |
What this means for you
Buyers of long products should take advantage of the current pull-back to top up short-term needs; deeper discounts are possible, but liquidity is thin and lead times are stretching.
Flat-rolled buyers may face a tighter window: with Chinese supply discipline back on the agenda, the HRC floor around $520 FOB looks reasonably well-supported for now.
Keep raw-material exposure balanced—iron-ore downside appears limited by weather-related supply risks, while scrap could still drift lower.
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