Weekly Steel Market -Price Stability Amid Tariff Turmoil
This week’s weekly steel market analysis captures a moment of fragile stability overshadowed by deepening uncertainty. Labour Day shutdowns across key markets (China, EU, LME) kept mid-week activity low. ( Fastmarket)
While prices for flat products like HRC, CRC, and HDGI remained stable, raw material movements—particularly iron ore and billet—reflected demand pressure and policy shocks.
Aluminium rose slightly, backed by fund flows. The broader metals industry is navigating volatility tied to U.S. tariff policy shifts, financial stress among producers, and cautious sentiment from global buyers.
Weekly Price Movement Summary
| Product | Direction | Weekly Change | Market Insight |
|---|---|---|---|
| Iron Ore CFR China | ▼ | -1.06% | Correction after last week’s rally; demand remains weak |
| Scrap HMS 2 CFR Turkey | → | 0 | Turkish bids steady, sellers cautious |
| Billet FOB China | ▲ | +0.59% | Mild buying in SE Asia supports offers |
| Billet CFR Turkey | ▼ | -1.61% | Weaker longs trade, offers trimmed |
| Wire Rod FOB China | → | 0 | No major activity or change |
| Wire Rod Ex-works Turkey | ▼ | -0.45% | Local mills face soft inquiry levels |
| Rebar FOB Turkey | ▼ | -0.46% | SHFE futures fall; demand uncertain |
| HR Coil (China Export) | → | 0 | Buyers hold back, market flat |
| CR Coil (China Export) | → | 0 | Quiet week; prices unchanged |
| HDGI Coil Z120 (China) | → | 0 | Z120 offers stable across Asia |
| Stainless 304 Coil | → | 0 | Nickel steady; no price shift |
| Aluminium (LME 3-mo) | ▲ | +0.95% | LME support via short-covering, fund interest |
Fig 1.0 Bar Chart -weekly changes
Global Steel Market Highlights
- US Steel Tariffs Reinstated: President Trump has reimposed 25% Section 232 tariffs and raised duties on Chinese goods to 145%, causing supply chain disruptions and volatility in HRC pricing.
- Overcapacity Pressure Grows: China, Turkey, Egypt, and South Korea continue to ship subsidized steel to non-US markets, adding pressure on domestic producers elsewhere.
- India Takes Defensive Action: India imposed a temporary 12% safeguard duty on imported steel products amid a second consecutive year as a net importer. (The Hindu Businessline)
- Government Bailouts Expand: The UK renationalized a core steel plant. The EU launched a €100 billion “Steel Action Plan.” Australia pledged billions to convert a steel plant into a green-tech pioneer.
- Jindal Steel Misses Earnings: Jindal Steel posted a ₹339 crore net loss amid price weakness and impairment charges, missing expectations. ( Source: The Hindu Businessline )
- Bearish Forecasts for Metals: J.P. Morgan lowered its HRC price forecast and projects base metals weakness due to expected demand destruction and a possible mild US recession. ( J.P.Morgan)
Trump Tariff Tracker (Week in Review)
The return of Trump’s steel tariffs has sent shockwaves through global trade corridors. Here’s what you need to know this week:
Section 232 tightened: Trump closed previous loopholes in the 25% tariff structure, calling it a top achievement of his second term’s early days.
Manufacturers hit hard: April’s ISM survey shows contraction in U.S. manufacturing for a second month—tariffs cited as the top concern.
Domestic support vs industry pushback: Steel associations like AISI and SMA back the move. But manufacturers warn of job losses and rising costs. ( Fastmarkets)
Global retaliation risk: The EU, India, and China may face increased import volume from suppliers shut out of the U.S.—complicating regional balance.
Outlook uncertain: Some exemptions were offered for U.S.-assembled cars and critical parts, hinting at room for behind-the-scenes deal-making.
Bottom line: The tariff policy may protect mills, but it’s damaging downstream industries, fueling recession fears, and adding to steel price volatility.
Outlook: What to Watch Next Week
- US–China trade backchannel talks
- India’s domestic steel price response to safeguard duties
- Chinese property market and infrastructure stimulus
- EU and UK subsidy enforcement for cleaner steel
- Fastmarkets HRC trend post-Labour Day
- J.P. Morgan’s next metals outlook revision
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